Sunday, October 29, 2006

Brown is in, Bush is back (?)

Andrew Rawnsley believes (as do I) that Gordo is safely on his way to becoming PM. There will be no contest from within the Cabinet. A coronation is certain. Speculation to the contrary is merely...speculation. Potential leadership candidates have seen the writing on the wall and that’s why there is an ever crowded field jostling for the Deputy Leadership (perhaps these wannabe Deputy leaders sense that GB won’t last too long in No10 and they are positioning themselves for another leadership contest in 2009 or 2010)

As Rawnsley points out: After all those years of planning and plotting, striving and straining, all those years of waiting for the prize and worrying that someone might steal up on him from behind, the long distance runner of British politics looks over his shoulder to find that there is no one there at all. That’s good news for the Tories- we can bleed Gordo dry at the ballot box. See

In the US of A, the latest polls suggest it is premature to predict a huge change in the Congress on November 7: the race is tightening and an all-out Democrat victory is not inevitable. That’s despite the fact that conservative intellectuals and more importantly, rural evangelicals are beginning to question Bush and the war. The Democrats may simply have peaked too early. And W is fighting back - the Republicans after all have plenty of campaign cash to hand. My own prediction, however, is that the Dems will gain 18 seats in the House of Representatives, three more than they need for a majority, but the Republicans will just about retain control of the US Senate...


Colin said...


Your blog is getting better with every week. Congratulations!

As far as I can see, after the coronation of Brown, the Tories will have an excellent change of winning the next election because people usually lose confidence in the promises of the ruling party after years of disappointments and because Brown's sinister looks can't compete with Cameron's charms and good looks.

Labour probably has only a chance if they try again to win the votes of immigrants. Therefore, my prediction is that we will hear some anti-Israel, anti-American and Islamophile utterances from Brown before the next election.

istanbultory said...

Thank you, Colin. I do my best.

The Tories do look set to win the next election. But only if we embrace a vigorous set of policies. Gordon Brown's rather poor record as Chancellor will haunt his premiership. The loss of Muslim voters (who used to back Labour by a margin of 75-80% but are now only 30%)augurs badly for a man who is already markedly unpopular in the country as a whole. However, I am not sure that Brown is anti-american or anti-Israel. The liberal Democrats are in free fall and are effectively leaderless.
the country is slowly but surely shifting back to the right.

Colin said...

"I am not sure that Brown is anti-american or anti-Israel."

I didn't mean that he is but I thought that he might try to pretend to be in order to regain the 75-80% of Muslim voters.

"the country is slowly but surely shifting back to the right."

That's good news for the UK.

Unfortunately, Germany and France seem to be shifting again to the Left.

istanbultory said...

"Unfortunately, Germany and France seem to be shifting again to the Left"

My condolences. I think Brown, although not Bliar, realises that there is little hope of Labour re-capturing the Muslim vote any time soon. That political constituency is thoroughly disillusioned with the whole NuLabour project. The Lib. Dems and Respect will welcome them with open arms. Most importantly, Brown, whatever his various flaws and poor judgement, is not inclined to dabble with anti-US/Israel populism for cheap political gain.